Probability system
Market & Ticker Regime
A frozen four-factor QQQ model and validated ticker-level model selection estimate positive 45-calendar-day return probability.
QQQ market modelTicker validationEarnings timing
Quantitative market research
Models, evidence,
and uncertainty.
An educational research project exploring market regimes, ticker-level probability models, historical price behavior, and model validation.
Public research boundary
No portfolios. No trade instructions.
Open Quant Lab presents impersonal quantitative research. It does not display current positions, account information, order recommendations, or portfolio-specific monitoring.
Educational model documentation
Probability estimates with stated limitations
Historical and out-of-sample validation evidence
Research areas
Built around evidence.
Public pages explain the models, their historical evidence, and their limitations. Portfolio operations remain private.
Model selection evidence
Ticker Model Comparison
Compares historical, market-identity, and direct four-factor models using purged out-of-sample probability error.
Brier scoreModel selectionData quality
Research boundaries
Evidence without instructions.
Impersonal research
The site does not evaluate a visitor’s holdings, finances, objectives, or suitability.
Methods are explicit
Model assumptions, validation evidence, data quality, and limitations remain visible.
Probabilities are uncertain
Outputs describe modeled probabilities and historical observations—not expected trading results.
Research stays isolated
A challenger model cannot alter published methodology without out-of-sample validation and review.